Green Bay Gambling: Week 9

Last Sunday’s latest dumb Packer loss was the first game that I didn’t actually watch, but I’d like to think it was for a pretty good reason.

Many of you already know that I was adopted. Less of you might know that a few years ago I met my biological mother, Rosemary, for the first time. She made a trip to Portland in 2018, we hung out for about a week and got along instantly. She visited once more before the COVID situation kicked off, and we’ve kept in touch ever since.

Anyway, about two months ago Rosemary’s own mother, Marie, passed away, and the extended family arranged a two-day celebration of Marie’s life in the Washington D.C./Baltimore area, where she and many of the other family-members live. After all of those plans were established, Rosemary sent me a text to let me know what was going on and, more thoughtfully, to invite me to attend.

Of course, my first immediate thought was “ah that would be so much travel and expense” because I’m super entrenched in my whole cozy work-from-home routine, but then after about five seconds I realized what a unique and awesome opportunity this would be. For the first time in 38 years, I’d be able to meet a whole bunch of biological relatives all at the same time, and I’d be a damn idiot to pass this up.

I found some reasonably priced flights, bought some nice clothes (since I spend the vast majority of my waking life in baggy hoodies and basketball shorts) and basically quarantined myself in my house for the days immediately preceding my trip. The day of my departure, my wife dropped me off at the airport and wished me the best. She’s always been so supportive of this whole process of getting to know Rosemary, and this trip was no different.

OK – let’s fast-forward to the next morning, because my experience eating a delicious dinner at an Alexandria, Va. Indian restaurant and crushing two IPAs after walking into a bar 15 minutes before its 10:00 p.m. closing time is probably not all that interesting to you.

I woke up at 7:45 a.m. eastern time (4:45 a.m. body-clock time) on Friday, tried to make myself as presentable as possible and put on my black funeral suit. I met Rosemary and her husband, John, in the hotel lobby and we drove into D.C., arriving to the Holy Trinity Catholic Church at about 9:00. We were the very first people to arrive – almost a little too early. I laugh about that now, given how many parties and shows and other events I’ve walked into way, waaay before I should have. I guess I picked that up genetically.

As we waited outside the church (the same church where former President John F. Kennedy worshiped when he was in Congress and the U.S. Senate), other members of the Warnock Family slowly started to drive up. The first person I met was my Uncle Ralph – Rosemary’s older brother.

“Hi, I’m your uncle Ralph,” he said, putting his hand out. “Wow – you look just like your dad.”

This was the first time someone had ever told me that, and Ralph would know. After all, he was my biological father’s roommate, and the person who introduced him to Rosemary. I’d always compared myself more to her, probably because she’s the only one of the two I’ve met so far, so it was a real trip to have that bit of information shared so enthusiastically with me. On what I’ll call a related note, I’d realize over the course of the weekend that I’m much thicker than the average Warnock man, and I’ll chalk that up to my father’s genetics more than to my questionable recent decisions with food, beer and fitness.

More and more Warnock and Warnock-adjacent people showed up, and I strained the limits of my short-term memory as I learned about two dozen names in the course of as many minutes. Eventually, we headed into the chapel and prepared for the service.


Me being charming while meeting (from left) my aunt Maria, my cousin’s boyfriend Ben and my cousins Julia and Jack.

I’ve only been into Catholic churches in the last few years for funerals, and this was a moving one. Marie led what seemed like an honorable life. She went back to school after raising seven children and eventually got a Master’s Degree in Social Work. She volunteered with Habitat for Humanity and really seemed beloved by her family. Rosemary and my cousin, Julia, sang a beautiful song to close the service that had my eyes welling up, even though I’d just recently met almost everyone in the room.

After the mass, the family gathered in an adjacent hall for hors d’oeuvres and a touching white-wine toast by my Aunt Ellen (the oldest Warnock child). Here I chatted with even more of my newly-met relatives, who made me feel like they’d known me my entire life. This would be a running theme of the weekend, and everyone’s welcoming approach made it so much easier for me to relax.

From there, the group split roughly in half, and I rode with Rosemary and John over to Julia’s apartment in another D.C. neighborhood. I quickly changed into a more comfortable chilling-out wardrobe, opened a beer and mingled for the next several hours. I think my most memorable conversations there happened with my cousin Jack, who’s 23 and just finished college. Like many members of my biological family, he’s apparently a super-talented musician, and recently moved to Brooklyn to give it A Real Go. (Have a listen to his band’s latest record here.) It was refreshing to connect with someone who’s got so much of his adulthood ahead of him, and he’s got a ton of enthusiasm about what he’s doing. I look forward very much to hearing the stuff he creates in the coming years.

A few hours later, the post-church party broke up, and my Uncle Ralph and Aunt Maria were kind enough to drive me to my next destination: my college buddy Nathan’s house.

If you knew me during my years at the University of Wisconsin, then I’m sure I don’t need to go into detail about how I spent time with my friends back in 2004ish. Even when Nathan visited Madison when we were in our late 20s, the focus of our time together was finding our favorite bars and putting away as many New Glarus beers as possible.

Needless to say, then, I knew things had changed quite a bit when Nathan answered the door holding his two-month-old daughter. Don’t get me wrong – we had an absolutely fantastic time catching up after several years. He was one of my closest buddies during a very important time in my life, and no matter how long it’s been since we’ve seen each other, we can just pick it right up again. Good fuckin’ dude.

After a couple hours, I called an Uber and headed back to the hotel. The next morning I’d need to pack up my suitcase and prepare for what would be by far the most active day of the weekend, and my brain thought I’d been awake since nearly 5:00 a.m., so it was time for night-night.

I woke up Saturday morning at a much more reasonable hour and hustled over to a Starbucks two blocks from the hotel. It occurred to me as I was falling asleep the previous night that I’d forgotten to eat more than a small plate’s worth of snacks, so I grabbed a breakfast sandwich to stave off any potential hunger-related grumpiness as I gathered my things.

Rosemary, John and I drove about 90 minutes northeast, past the actual city of Baltimore, into the adjacent county’s suburbs, onto a beautiful street and arrived at my cousin Maggi’s house, where the family would be gathering to celebrate their matriarch’s life. The property’s yard was absolutely full of newly fallen leaves, much to the everlasting chagrin of Maggi’s husband, Rob.

Without a doubt, this was the highlight of the weekend. I spent an entire day getting to know a whole new branch of my family, floating around different groups throughout the house and in the yard, answering the standard just-met-each-other questions and enjoying a wonderful catered spread which included Maryland Crab Dip. (I’ll always like Dungeness the best, but this was very, very tasty.) It was one of the best family parties I’ve ever been to, and just like the previous day I was treated like I’d been part of the mix forever.


Chatting with my cousins Luke, Maggi and Katherine (and practicing unflattering posture).

Rosemary warned me ahead of time that the family had a pretty “big energy,” like I might need to prepare myself. On the contrary, I’d never felt more comfortable around a group of people in my entire life. When I was growing up, my mom had a hand signal that she’d use whenever I’d get too hyped and start speaking in an inappropriately loud voice. That hand signal would not be necessary at a Warnock Family Gathering. It never occurred to me until last weekend that my tendency to be “sort of a lot” might have been passed to me genetically, and frankly it was a joy to be able to interact with an entire family who can match what I bring to the party.

I was so taken in the moment that I even spent a ton of time that afternoon playing catch with my 12-year-old cousin, William, and my Uncle David. It was then I learned that my unusual sweatiness was also inherited from the Warnock side. People made fun of David after we got done, like it was something he was known for, and it was fun to bond with a member of my family over such a specific genetic thing.


I haven’t thrown a football in like two decades so it’s a miracle something bad didn’t happen to my shoulder here.

The afternoon soon turned into the evening, and Maggi and Rob were thoughtful enough to order a like a dozen pizzas. It was the perfect way to end a family party, and by that time I was ready to inhale about a half-pizza’s worth of slices. I would have stayed there late into the night, but my flight back to Portland was pretty early the following morning, so we drove back to my Aunt Ellen’s house to decompress and chat in a more low-key setting.

After a surprisingly comfortable night on an air mattress, I said my farewells and headed to the Baltimore airport. A few hours later I was back in Oregon regaling my wife with the story of the weekend while trying consciously to lower the volume of my voice by like four notches. I realize now that it took me several days to fully process what I’d just experienced and to return to more normal chill place, but I’m still feeling the residual euphoria deep in my brain. It was truly a weekend I’ll never forget, and I’m so glad I’ve finally gotten to know more of my family.


My Uncle Ralph also has cool glasses.

Oh! It turns out I won a little money over the weekend as well. Peep those details below.

BET #1 – Detroit Lions +4 (-110) – $5 bet pays out $9.54 – WIN

Why did I make this bet?

The Packers are in a tailspin. Sunday’s loss in Detroit marks the team’s fifth defeat in a row. Their 18 total touchdowns is tied for seventh-worst in the league. Meanwhile (and as we’ve repeated ad nauseam throughout the season), the team’s rushing defense has been a true Achilles heel in their campaign to once again reach the playoffs.

The real reason I made this bet is because my dad (and we’re back to talking about the Reinerts now) recommended it, but even at 1-6 I wasn’t so sure the Lions would be an easy victory for Green Bay. Whether they’d exceed the necessary scoring margin was another story, but with the Packers trending downward in a big way, I figured I might as well just go with the wisdom from the Old Man.

What did I learn here?

Children, always listen to your fathers.

At this point in the season, there’s practically zero chance that the Packers will win the NFC North, and their window of opportunity to grab one of the three other playoff spots is closing rapidly. Aaron Rodgers, though he might have a few contractual years left with the Packers, looks like he’s reaching the point in his career when everyone starts to talk more about how good he used to be than how good he is.

Might the Packers choose to tank the rest of the season in an effort to grab a potential Rodgers replacement early in the 2023 Draft? I’ll be watching the next several game lines closely, and will be tempted to try anything closer than -5 for Green Bay’s opponents.

BET #2 – Jared Goff OVER 2.5 Rushing Yards (-120) – $5 bet pays $9.17 – LOSS

Why did I make this bet?

Two point five yards is seven and a half feet. With one decent push from the Lions offensive line, the 6-foot-4 Jared Goff could have taken one step forward and then fallen with his arms outstretched and passed 2.5 yards.

What did I learn here?

Never wager on a Jared Goff Over, except maybe for interceptions. It’s a rule I should have followed all along, and this loss serves me right.

BET #3 – Total Score is an EVEN Number (+100) – $5 bet pays out $10.00 – WIN

Why did I make this bet?

Once again, the even-number total had better odds than the odd-number total, and this time I actually got a plus-number. I’m not smart enough to understand why both types of total aren’t +100, so I might just continue to take the side with the more attractive number until I start losing.

What did I learn here?

This results of these odd/even bets don’t really depend on either team’s performance in the game, and that total lack of control makes these wagers pretty exciting. Only in a late-game scoring scenario could a player or team become the hero or villain from a gambling standpoint, and you never know if that will happen or how you’ll feel.

Fun way to bet.

BET #4 – Detroit Lions to Win AND Total Score is UNDER 49.5 Points (+370) – $5 bet pays out $23.50 – WIN

Why did I make this bet?

I thought I’d sworn off same-game parlays after I’d lost a few of these earlier in the season, and to be perfectly candid, I forgot that I made this bet until I looked at the results on Sunday afternoon. If I had to guess, my Internal Beer Logic said “well you’re already betting on the Lions +4, and neither of these teams have particularly impressive offenses so it’ll probably end up a low-scoring situation.”

What did I learn here?

Hooray for Beer Logic! Sometimes, especially when you’ve been on the negative side of the ledger for basically the entire season, it’s better to remain consistent with one’s wagers (and not, for example, try to hedge on the $5 Lions point-spread bet by doing some dumb Packers-centric parlay here) in an effort to compound the winnings.

Does that make sense? Sorry – I’ve been drinking.

SUMMARY

WEEK 8
$20 bet
$43.04 paid out
$23.04 profit

2022 SEASON
$180 bet
$167.53 paid out
$12.47 loss

NEXT WEEK

The Packers host the hated and loathsome Dallas Cowboys, who are coming off a Bye Week and who Packer fans will always, always detest because of what happened in the Early ’90s. If the Packers lose their sixth straight, my preseason bet that they’d win fewer than 11 total games will cash, so it won’t be all bad.

Check out other weeks’ results and “analysis” here.