I mean, it was pretty much what we all expected, right?
The Bills established a significant lead in the first half, and the Packers were basically powerless to come back. Maybe the most surprising part of the game is that the Packers actually covered the 10.5-point spread (not that I bet on it…), but I suppose celebrating a two-score loss because it was a half-point less than oddsmakers predicted isn’t much to hang one’s hat on.
From a betting standpoint, though, this was my most successful game since my $12 profit in Week 1. Is it a coincidence that half my wagers concerned the Bills and one of the other two had nothing specifically to do with the Packers’ performance? Probably not, so it’s a strategy that’s probably worth exploring more as the 2022 season reaches its halfway point.
The Packers might be trending downward, but I’ve made money two weeks in a row. One of these times we’ll all win.
BET #1 – Josh Allen OVER 42.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – $5 bet pays out $9.34 – WIN
Why did I make this bet?
The Packers’ rushing defense blah blah blah…
This was the first bet I wanted, since it was a much lower yardage total than for Bills’ starting running back Devin Singletary, and Josh Allen is an offense-producing superathlete. I thought it would take just a few designed quarterback runs or improvised scrambles for Allen to surpass fortysome yards, especially because the Packers have had trouble against mobile quarterbacks for my entire life.
What did I learn here?
No matter who the opposing team is, I’m going to keep hammering a rushing-yardage Over until the Packers’ run defense can show anything resembling potency, and now that linebackers De’Vondre Campbell and Preston Smith are injured, things are only going to get worse.
BET #2 – Josh Allen OVER 0.5 Interceptions (+115) – $5 bet pays $10.75 – WIN
Why did I make this bet?
By contrast, the Packers’ defense against the pass ranks among the NFL’s best, and it was a foregone conclusion that Josh Allen was going to be throwing it all over the place to keep things moving. If this Over/Under had been 1.5 interceptions I would have stayed away, but given how heavily the Bills rely on Allen’s arm, the chance that he’d throw just a single careless ball that was captured by one of the league’s top pass defenses was pretty good.
What did I learn here?
While the Packers have only intercepted the ball four times this season (half of which took place on Sunday), the speed and aggression with which their defensive backs play will always keep such turnovers a very realistic possibility. This is a bet I’d absolutely consider again, especially against the league’s more careless quarterbacks.
BET #3 – Aaron Rodgers OVER 246.5 Passing Yards (+110) – $5 bet pays out $10.50 – LOSS
Why did I make this bet?
If the Packers were going to fall behind early, as I correctly assumed they would, they’d have to rely on their passing game if they had any chance of keeping things close. Aaron Rodgers certainly added some big chunks of yardage during the second half, but the team’s lack of production during the game’s first 30 minutes meant that he fell considerably short of the yardage total here.
What did I learn here?
I think it’s about time to stop making Aaron Rodgers bets. When I think he’ll under-perform the odds, he tosses bombs. When I bet the Over, it’s Handoff City. The longer the season goes, the more I’m motivated to look at the Packers’ opponents when considering any props.
BET #4 – Total Score is an EVEN Number (-105) – $5 bet pays out $9.76 – WIN
Why did I make this bet?
For some reason, the odd-number bet had worse odds at -115. Maybe someone who knows more about math and statistics than I do can explain that one, but because this seems like a 50-50 bet to a rube like me, I chose the wager with the better odds.
What did I learn here?
I will completely sell out my favorite football team for a $5 bet.
As time ticked down on Sunday night, veteran Packers kicker Mason Crosby lined up for a late fourth-quarter field goal that would put the visiting team in theoretical striking distance but also from a realistic standpoint probably would not improve their chances of winning by a whole lot. More important to me, a made field goal would transform the 27-17 score to 27-20, thereby turning a winning Even final tally to Odd.
“MISS IT!! MISS IT!!” I yelled at the television, and I cheered heartily when Crosby’s kick sailed well outside the goalpost. I’m pathetic.
SUMMARY
WEEK 8
$20 bet
$29.85 paid out
$9.85 profit
2022 SEASON
$160 bet
$124.49 paid out
$35.51 loss
NEXT WEEK
The Packers head to Detroit to face the one-win Lions. Despite the Packers’ struggles this season, and the fact that they’re the visiting team, Green Bay still enjoys a four-point advantage in the sportsbook as of this writing. My dad said he’d take the Lions, so I might just go with him there.
Eric Reinert 