Things are starting to look a little worrisome for the fellas in the green and the gold. Just a couple months ago, many experts counted the Packers among the biggest favorites to win the next Super Bowl. Today, the team’s fans would simply settle for a win after three straight weeks of the team coming up short on the scoreboard.
The latest challenging defeat came at the hands of the far-from-threatening Washington Football Team Commanders, who on Sunday were led by a quarterback who had played in just 25 games over four-plus NFL seasons. Despite a matchup that suggested an easy victory for the Packers, the Commanders pulled ahead in the third quarter and would survive an attempted Green Bay comeback to capture a 23-21 victory.
On a happier note, though, this is the first game where I’ve made a profit on this dumb project since Week 3 (and only the third week overall). Meager as that win might have been, it’s nice to know that not every week will be an exercise in handing my money to a multibillion-dollar company in exchange for precisely nothing.
At this rate, I’ll be back to even by 2026!
BET #1 – Brian Robinson Jr. OVER 52.5 Rushing Yards (+110) – $10 bet pays out $21 – WIN
Why did I make this bet?
If there’s been one near-certainty this season, it’s that the Packers’ defense is going to make every opposing running back look like Terrell Davis in 1998. That the Commanders were starting Taylor Heinicke at quarterback also gave me plenty of confidence that Washington would be relying substantially on their ground game.
In this instance, one plus one equals ten – as in a somewhat rare $10 bet that I placed with zero hesitation last week.
What did I learn here?
Despite my poor performance overall on this thing, I still have to trust my gut.
Shortly after the Commanders’ offense first took the field, the announcers told the story of how rookie running back Brian Robinson Jr. was playing in just his third game this season after recovering from multiple gunshot wounds he suffered during an attempted carjacking over the summer. I shook my head and sighed, lamenting yet another bet that I made without doing even the minimum amount of research on the player most directly involved.
Still, the Packers’ defense performed as advertised, allowing not just Robinson but also backup runner Antonio Gibson to surpass the wager’s required yardage. The tasty plus-odds made this win even better, and it’s the sole reason I’m walking away from Week 7 with more money than I bet.
BET #2 – AJ Dillon OVER 10.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – $5 bet pays $9.34 – LOSS
Why did I make this bet?
Ten point five yards. That’s all.
It’s two caught screen-passes max.
Most of the Packers’ receivers have been unreliable at best, so this seemed like a total steal.
What did I learn here?
I guess there’s a reason the yardage total was so low. Dillon had only managed eleven or more receiving yards three times this season, including twice where his total was eleven exactly.
There was one play that seemed promising, where Dillon caught a short pass over the middle and gained a few more yards afterward, but everything was called back after one of the Packers’ four offensive penalties on Sunday.
Honestly, I’d consider this bet again at the same number of yards, but it didn’t happen for me this time.
BET #3 – Total Score UNDER 41.5 Points (-110) – $5 bet pays out $9.55 – LOSS
Why did I make this bet?
The Packers have only scored three touchdowns in two games this season, and their struggles on offense more generally have been well documented both in my writing and among actual professional football analysts. The Commanders’ quarterback on Sunday was a guy who started 15 games for the team last season and was still backing up Carson emm-effing Wentz to begin 2022.
These seemed like the ingredients for a low-scoring, defensive-centered 60 minutes.
What did I learn here?
The only explanation I can come up with is that Taylor Heinicke and Aaron Rodgers underwent some sort of Freaky Friday-style body switch at halftime of Sunday’s game. Three of the Commanders’ four second-half possessions ended with points, where the Packers managed just a single late touchdown along with a punt and a turnover on downs.
In fact, that meaningless Packer touchdown – which didn’t even put the team in the lead – is ultimately what foiled this Under. These score-total bets are rough, and I might have to stay away moving forward.
SUMMARY
WEEK 7
$20 bet
$21 paid out
$1 profit
2022 SEASON
$140 bet
$94.64 paid out
$45.36 loss
OTHER BETS FROM THE WEEK
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Sacramento Kings – Damian Lillard OVER 23.5 Points (-130) – $5 bet pays out $8.85 – LOSS
It was tough sledding for Blazer fans last season. After Lillard – the team’s star point-guard and unquestionable best player – decided to end his 2021-22 campaign about halfway through, get a much-needed abdominal surgery and heal his body, Portland went fully in the tank. The Blazers quickly proceeded to trade away nearly every meaningful piece of the roster and then benched the rest en route to a hideous 27-55 record.
I did not renew my season tickets.
Anyway, given that last week’s season opener was Lillard’s first game in nearly a year, I thought he’d really light it up to remind people why he was named one of the league’s 75 greatest players in history. And while Lillard has, indeed, seemed to return to form with two recent 41-point performances, he managed just 20 in Portland’s win against the Kings.
As of this writing, the Blazers sit at 4-0, including impressive wins over the Suns and Nuggets. Chances are we’ll see a regression to the mean within the next handful of weeks, but it’s definitely been exciting to see a retooled roster and updated defensive scheme pay some early dividends. Don’t expect too many more NBA bets from me – I’ve lost enough money as it is.
UFC 280 – Islam Makhachev to Win by Decision (+425) – $5 bet pays out $26.25 – LOSS
I knew two things going into Saturday’s UFC lightweight championship main event: Islam Makhachev’s strategy is largely dependent on his world-class grappling, and his opponent Charles Oliveira is usually more than happy to oblige when someone wants to go to the mat with him. Nineteen of Makhachev’s 23 professional victories have come by submission or decision, and Oliveira has 21 submission wins of his own, including 16 in the UFC.
Simply put, I thought Makhachev would repeatedly look to take Oliveira down, where the two fighters’ mutual excellence would result in a 25-minute stalemate. Makhachev, being the more aggressive of the two, would likely spend most of the fight in top position, not really advancing but not really putting himself in danger. After five rounds of this grind, the final horn would sound and the judges would give the decision – and the belt – to Makhachev.
While the fight’s opening stanza seemed to play out in exactly this fashion, Makhachev landed a solid punch in the second round that put Oliveira on the canvas. From there, the Dagestan native locked in an arm-triangle choke and secured the victory seconds later. He’s going to be a problem for the UFC’s other 155-pounders moving forward, and maybe I should have had a bit more confidence in a finish this past weekend.
NEXT WEEK
The Packers stare down the fearsome football juggernaut that is the Buffalo Bills. If I wrote that before like three years ago it would have been with abundant sarcasm. Funny how quickly things can change.
It would be easy to think they they’re just going to get crushed, but I could also see Aaron Rodgers wanting to show the NKOTB Josh Allen why he’s a four-time MVP. Am I crazy to think that a Packer bet with the points could be worth it? (Probably.)
