It’s been an unusually warm October in Portland, to say the very least. This month we’ve had 12 days where the high temperature exceeded 80 degrees. To put that in perspective, there was precisely one such day between 2016 and 2021, and before this year Portland never had more than six days above 80 degrees in any October on record. Typically, the weeks before Halloween are when the Pacific Northwest’s rainy season begins in earnest, so I’ve been trying to take advantage of the comparatively more pleasant temperatures (while trying my best to put the worrisome likely cause to the back of my brain).
I strolled, therefore, into the Ship Ahoy Tavern on a very nice Sunday evening for my weekly pinball-league match still attired in my summer best, ordered a Pabst and was soon thereafter greeted by heckling from one of my teammates.
“How ’bout those Jets?” he said through insincerely gritted teeth, expecting a much larger reaction from me than he got. He’s a Lions’ fan so he can really only take pleasure in other people’s misery.
“Oh. Yeah,” I shrugged, “I sort of already forgot about it, to be honest, because I actually won a couple of my bets this week.”
Such is where this whole project has gotten me. Where most Packer fans worth their salt would have sulked their way through the weekend’s remaining hours, I had a spring in my step. This comparative happiness wasn’t due to winning any money this week, mind you, but instead to the fact that I didn’t lose all $20 for the third consecutive Sunday.
I can’t imagine how I’d be if I was betting big dollars on this shiz.
BET #1 – Aaron Jones OVER 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – $5 bet pays out $9.34 – WIN
Why did I make this bet?
The concerns raised about the Packers’ offense over the summer have unfortunately played out as predicted. That is, the receiving corps was almost completely replaced during the offseason and the lack of familiarity between Aaron Rodgers and his new pass-catchers has resulted in a considerable drop-off in production.
Without many reliable targets, therefore, I thought Rodgers would instead place more emphasis on shorter passes to his running backs, and it wouldn’t take a whole lot of those to get 23 yards or more.
What did I learn here?
Aaron Jones continues to be a good-luck charm for me. During Week 1, I bet an Over on his rushing total and he won it for me by precisely zero point five yards. Against the Jets, he caught just three passes, but one of them went for a 14-yard gain en route to a total of – drumroll please – 25 receiving yards.
As I said last time, sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good, but I’d definitely do this bet again.
BET #2 – Breece Hall OVER 59.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – $5 bet pays $9.34 – WIN
Why did I make this bet?
The Packers’ run defense has been straight doo-doo, so this was the very first bet I sought out last week. I should have hit it for $10 instead of doing the dumb same-game parlay below, but then Breece Hall probably would have missed half the game and ended up with like 56 yards.
What did I learn here?
Betting the rushing-yard Over on whichever featured running back opposes the Packers seems like the most certain wager one can make in 2022, and I will continue to consider doing so for at least the next several weeks. This is, of course, to take nothing away from Hall, who looks like he could soon be one of the NFL’s most exciting rushers, but the Packers have really shown their collective ass this season when it comes to containing things on the ground.
BET #3 – Aaron Rodgers UNDER 240.5 Passing Yards (-115) – $5 bet pays out $9.34 – LOSS
Why did I make this bet?
I’ve been looking much more closely at Under bets in the last couple of weeks, especially as it pertains to the Packers’ passing game (for reasons I discuss both above and in pretty much every previous weekly summary), and while I still have yet to win on any of them, I’m pridefully determined to stay the course. Unders, I’ve repeatedly been told, are where the so-called smart money plays, and I’m a pretty smart guy … right?
What did I learn here?
No one knows anything when it comes to gambling.
While the Packers managed just ten points on Sunday, Rodgers somehow juuuuuust got by the 240.5-yard line here, finishing with 246 through the air. The key, it seemed, was the quarterback’s connection with tight-end Robert Tonyan, who caught the ball ten times for 90 yards. Beyond that, Rodgers threw the ball to seven other receivers.
I’m curious if there will be any Tonyan receiving props for next week, or perhaps a number-of-pass-catchers wager, since those currently seem like the most likely wins relating to the Packers’ throwing game.
BET #4 – Packers Win + Total Score OVER 45.5 Points + Final Score is an Odd Number (+350) – $5 bet pays out $22.50 – LOSS
Why did I make this bet?
I’m like $45 in the hole and was trying to catch up.
For years, the Jets have been one of the NFL’s absolute worst teams, where the Packers currently employ the two-time defending league MVP. Despite Green Bay’s demonstrated challenges, I certainly thought they’d at least pull off a home win against the secondary New York franchise. Furthermore, in the pass-happy game that we’ve seen evolve in the last handful of years, 23 points for each team didn’t seem like such a large total. And then the odd-numbered-score thing was literally a coin-flip, so why not?
What did I learn here?
R-E-L-A-X? I don’t think so.
Sure, the Jets look like they’ve finally put together a decent young roster, and the if they win their next game they’ll have already tied or bested their total number of victories from 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020 and 2021. But the Packers aren’t supposed to lose to the Jets, let alone at Lambeau, let alone by more than two touchdowns.
I thought the “Packers Win” part was the biggest lock of this bet, but now I’m not sure I feel comfortable picking them against anyone, especially if they’re giving up more than a few points. Packer fans have been pretty spoiled for the last three decades, but the winds of change seem to be in the air.
SUMMARY
WEEK 6
$20 bet
$18.68 paid out
$1.32 loss
2022 SEASON
$120 bet
$73.64 paid out
$46.36 loss
NEXT WEEK
The Packers travel to the DMV where they hope to get things back in gear against the Washington Commanders. The erstwhile “Football Team” will be without starting quarterback Carson Wentz on Sunday, though to some Washington fans that might seem like a positive. I’ll be keeping a very close eye on some rushing Overs and scoring Unders.
Love you!
Eric Reinert 