I’ll just be honest: There was pretty much no way I was going to get out of bed at 6:30 a.m. on a Sunday to watch football, so for a few hours this weekend I had a bit of a Schrodinger’s Bets situation on my hands. Instead, I woke up a few hours later to the dulcet tones of my dog licking his most sensitive areas, and deftly avoided spoilers as I made a cup of tea and fired up the DVR to see how history’s first Packer game in the UK unfolded.
Judging by the fact that I haven’t gotten around to writing about my betting results until late in a week where I didn’t have too much else going on – tonight I decided I’d put it off a little longer by cleaning the toilets, for instance – you can probably guess that things went about as well in my ledger as they did in London for the Packers.
Ordinarily I’d cap the intro with some silly transition, but I just don’t have the energy.
BET #1 – Saquon Barkley OVER 77.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – $10 bet pays out $18.70 – LOSS
Why did I make this bet?
Saquon Barkley is back to peak form, a notion evidenced best by the fact that he was the NFL’s leading rusher through the season’s first four weeks. The Giants’ premier player was certainly slated to see a lot of action on Sunday, especially because quarterback Daniel Jones was nursing an obvious ankle injury. What’s more, the Packers’ defense made the Patriots’ running backs look like Pro Bowlers in Week 4, and I bet you can’t even name them without looking it up, so I thought 77.5 yards seemed like an easy total for the game’s best runner to reach. Things seemed even more certain when Barkley broke off a 40-yard scamper early in the game, so it was just a matter of time.
Then Barkley missed nearly a full quarter’s worth of football in the second half after leaving the field with a shoulder injury. He ended up with 70 total rushing yards.
What did I learn here?
My least favorite losses are the ones where the bets logically make sense, and should have cashed if not for some freak bullcrap. But that’s gambling, isn’t it.
I don’t think I learned anything from this one, but maybe I’m just pissed.
BET #2 – Total Points UNDER 41.5 (-110) – $5 bet pays $9.55 – LOSS
Why did I make this bet?
I waited until Saturday night to place this one, because I wanted to see if and by how much the total would move. It started at 40.5 earlier in the week when I was considering betting the Under anyway, but when I saw it bump a full point and I still had a bet left to place, I couldn’t resist.
Overseas game. Early start time. Uncertainty at wide receiver on both teams. This is a recipe, I thought, for a low-scoring affair.
What did I learn here?
More than a month into the 2022 season, it seems the Packers are a one-half team. I thought this trend would play into my Under bet when they scored 20 points in the first half (and allowed only 10). Right on cue, the Packers scored just two points after halftime, so they certainly did their part to help my wager.
Unfortunately for me and for my favorite team, the Giants came back to score an additional 17 points in the second half, and the two they allowed to the Packers resulted from a deliberate safety in order to prevent an Aaron Rodgers-led late-game comeback. The 27-22 final score invalidated my Under bet, and also introduced no small amount of uncertainty about the team’s near-term future.
BET #3 – Aaron Jones and Saquon Barkley OVER 150 Scrimmage Yards Each (+1000) – $5 bet pays out $55.00 – LOSS
Why did I make this bet?
The +1000 odds made all the difference here. I frankly didn’t expect this one to cash, but given the totality of the circumstances surrounding this game, I thought it was worth a shot, especially considering that Barkley and Jones have been their teams’ most reliable offensive performers.
What did I learn here?
There’s a reason these bets have such long odds. Having missed a significant chunk of the game, Barkley only managed 106 total yards. Even if he had played for all of his team’s possessions and surpassed the needed 150-yard mark, though, Jones only managed a pedestrian 80 yards from scrimmage. So, you know, whatever.
Not a smart bet, to be sure, but when you’re in the financial spot I’ve put myself in, it could pay to take the occasional big swing.
SUMMARY
WEEK 5
$20 bet
$0 paid out
$20 loss
2022 SEASON
$100 bet
$54.96 paid out
$45.04 loss
NEXT WEEK
The Packers play their second home game in a row against a team nominally representing New York City, only this one will actually be at Lambeau Field, they’re hosting the Jets and there’s a chance I’ll wake up in time to watch it live. Let’s hope my bets turn out differently, too.
Eric Reinert 