As the clock expired Sunday evening on the Green Bay Packers’ fairly one-sided win over the Chicago Bears, I should have been reveling in the thrill of victory. After all, the Packers ran away with the game in the second quarter, scoring 21 points and essentially sealing things up before halftime. It was a vast improvement from their lackluster performance in Week 1, and for the second consecutive mid-September they gave all Packer fans a glimmer of hope that the season might not be so tough to watch after all.
Alas, however, this was the week I learned about how sports betting can turn even the most enthusiastic fan into a disappointed grump, pacing around his living room and complaining under his breath about how the Packers basically stopped playing after 30 minutes. It’s all my own fault, of course, but I’ve come too far to abandon this whole project now just because I got totally cleaned out this week.
I’m determined to keep going, though, so here are the gory details.
BET #1 – Bears +9.5 (-105) – $10 bet pays out $19.52 – LOSS
Why did I make this bet?
After last week’s anemic one-touchdown output, I wasn’t sure the Packers would even put ten total points on the board, let alone beat their opponents by that margin. On the other hand, the Bears scored 19 points last Sunday in terrible field conditions against the top-ranked defense in the NFL (measured by yards-against per game), so the spread seemed generous enough to hit for $10.
What did I learn here?
They really, really, really, really, really, really suck. Yes, the Bears still suck.
I first got the inkling that this bet might not go my way when the app I use pushed the line to Bears +10 a few days before the game. Turns out that was even being generous to the fellas from Chicago, as the Packers just put it on them in the second quarter, including a touchdown to the returning Allen Lazard.
Aaron Rodgers had an efficient if pedestrian game, with 234 yards and two touchdowns on 19 of 25 passing, but the real key here was the Bears’ awful offense. Quarterback Justin Fields managed just 70 throwing yards, and while he was responsible for running in a Bears touchdown, it was the only time the team reached the end zone the entire game.
Unfortunately for my father-in-law, it looks like this might be another tough year for Bears fans, and I apparently need to have more faith in Green Bay’s offense moving forward.
BET #2 – Packers Win Both Halves (+110) – $5 bet pays out $10.50 – LOSS
Why did I make this bet?
I was trying to be clever and do a roundabout way of middling the lines. I thought the Packers would win the game, but I didn’t think they’d win by all that many points, so I figured this would be a good way to capitalize on that potential combination of events.
What did I learn here?
As the second half began, I realized that the Packers had established such a big lead that it was a mathematical impossibility for me to hit both this bet and the point-spread bet discussed above. Upon reaching that unfortunate conclusion, and seeing that the Bears probably weren’t going to pull within nine points for me to cash Bet #1, I naturally rooted for the Packers to simply outscore the Bears in quarters three and four.
I’m not saying the Packers’ offense took their collective foot off the gas after gaining that sizable advantage, but they only managed to score three points in the second half, matching the Bears’ total and turning this seemingly easy payout into a dumb defeat.
The real lesson: Don’t try to get cute with your bets.
BET #3 – Each Team Scores 1 TD in Each Half (+265) – $5 bet pays out $18.25 – LOSS
Why did I make this bet?
Here’s the part where I admit that I made these three Packer bets after drinking most of a bottle of wine, and that this bet in particular was my dumbest gambling choice this week. I wasn’t really feeling most of the other available wagers, and in a state where maybe my judgement was slightly impaired, I thought to myself “Well surely both of these professional football teams can manage to score a single touchdown in each half, right?”
What did I learn here?
<long, exasperated sigh>
I mean, cool that the Packers’ defense is apparently so formidable (or perhaps the Bears’ offense so feeble) that they allowed just one touchdown and two field goals throughout the entire game, but maybe if the Bears had crossed the goal line one time in the second half, the Packers would have been motivated to do the same.
Oh well. This was a true mark’s bet, and clearly I am a mark.
SUMMARY
WEEK 2
$20 bet
$0 paid out
$20 loss
SEASON
$40 bet
$32.42 paid out
$7.58 loss
Other Bets from the Weekend
Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin – Alvarez to Win by Unanimous Decision (+140) – $5 pays $12 – WIN
I know almost nothing about boxing, but I do know that these are two of the best fighters of their now-aging generation. Looking at the straight bets, Alvarez was a gigantic favorite, and while I thought he would win, I neither wanted to place such a low-profit bet nor risk the sweeter odds of the less likely outcomes (Alvarez by KO/TKO; any Golovkin bet).
All of this is to say that the Alvarez-by-UD bet, with its small plus-odds, was just tempting enough to try. Despite the long odds against him, Golovkin had only lost one other time in his entire storied professional career – to Alvarez, by decision, in 2018 – and I figured someone that legendary would not suddenly have developed a glass chin. I know this one doesn’t count toward my overall total, but as the only win of the week, it felt good to pick this correctly.
Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets – Same-game Parlay (+390) – Jacoby Brissett Throws 200+ passing yards AND Nick Chubb Scores a Touchdown AND Cleveland Browns Win – $5 pays $24.50 – LOSS
Serves me right for betting on the damn Cleveland Browns. If their cursed modern history wasn’t reason enough to avoid them, they’ve recently decided to go into business with a man who settled more than 20 civil lawsuits accusing him of sexual harassment and sexual assault, so I should have known better.
Brissett and Chubb did their parts with plenty of time to spare, so all the Browns needed to do against the lowly New York Jets was hold onto a two-touchdown lead at the tail-end of the fourth quarter. I turned to my wife and gloated about how she married a “smart” (this was before the Packers/Bears game), and then watched as it all fell apart in the most Cleveland Browns way possible. I’ll let this brief recap from The Ringer tell the story.
“Cleveland was leading 30-17 with under two minutes to go. The Jets scored a touchdown, recovered an onside kick, and scored again, in the span of exactly one minute, and won the game by one point.”
<longer, even more exasperated sigh>
NEXT WEEK
The Packers go to Tampa Bay to battle a bad-tempered Tom Brady and the thus far-undefeated Buccaneers, and I’ll probably be keeping it safe with my bets. Have a good one!
