The two people who have kept up with my amateur gambling writing all season might have noticed that I haven’t done much social media “promotion” for this project the last few weeks. First, I got behind on these columns over the holidays, when I shut my brain completely off except to complete the most basic, necessary tasks. Then, Damar Hamlin’s horrific on-field injury happened on live television, and it started feeling extra gross to be like “Hey everyone! Check out how much money I made gambling on this bloodsport!”
Football fans have always accepted the bargain they make with themselves that, while the game is exciting and emotional and – yes – violent, there exists the realistic, even likely possibility that they will regularly witness the sort of human wreckage that would be unpalatable in a lot of other scenarios. And that’s exactly what happened on January 2, when Hamlin made a tackle, stood to his feet and then immediately collapsed. The game between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals was permanently suspended, and (as many other real writers have pointed out) Monday Night Football broadcaster ESPN did a pretty good job of demonstrating empathy during the event’s aftermath.
In the weeks that followed, I contemplated whether to just throw this project in the trash altogether. After all, it’s not like I’m really doing this for anyone but myself, so who cares if I stop short of a full season? But then I heard an interview with Domonique Foxworth, a former NFL defensive back who was also the president of the NFL Players Association from 2012 to 2014. He could obviously relate to the things Hamlin’s teammates and opponents were going through on a much more direct level, and had some suggestions for how to counter-balance the inherent risk the NFL players take in order to do their jobs.
So instead of waxing dramatic in this final piece about how the Packers couldn’t even beat the damn Detroit Lions, at home, when a win would have guaranteed them a spot in the playoffs and the Lions had already been eliminated from postseason contention (grumble grumble grumble), I thought I’d share some of Foxworth’s insights.
Idea 1: Extend Post-Retirement Healthcare for Life
As part of the benefits package the NFLPA has won through collective bargaining with the owners, the NFL will continue to cover its former players’ healthcare costs for five years after they retire. After that, these ex-offensive linemen and ex-linebackers must pay up to $35,000 in annual premiums to remain on the same plan, which mostly wipes out the $43,000 pension players also receive. (Foxworth did not specifically mention increasing the pension amount, but it stands to reason that he and other retired players would surely favor a higher yearly payout.)
Instead, the league should at least provide lifetime subsidized retiree healthcare to the degree that out-of-pocket costs are roughly equivalent to what a full-time employee at a “regular job” might expect. My friends who played high school football for a few years have nagging aches and pains, so I can’t imagine what an aging longtime NFL veteran must feel like getting out of bed in the morning.
Idea 2: Reduce the Vesting Period for NFL Players
Did you know that NFL players won’t receive post-retirement benefits unless they’ve been in the league for more than three seasons? According to the NFLPA’s website, players earn a “credited season” when they’ve been on a team’s roster for three or more regular- or postseason games. Once a player has accumulated three credited seasons, he is considered “vested” and becomes eligible for the healthcare coverage, yearly pension and other benefits after his career ends.
Damar Hamlin was in just his second season in the NFL when he was hurt at work, and if he’s never again part on an NFL roster (a distinct possibility, given the severity of his injuries) he might not receive any post-career benefits from the NFL or NFLPA. That doesn’t seem right.
As soon as a player earns his place on an NFL regular-season roster, he should also earn the ability to take advantage of the fact that each of the league’s 32 teams are worth billions of dollars and can more than afford to offset a portion of his considerable healthcare costs and pay him a nominal (as a percentage of overall league earnings) pension for his services. Let’s not forget that NFL players have already been destroying themselves for a decade by the time they reach the league, so even a single season at the highest level can exacerbate their long-term physical problems.
It’s for this reason that I also think players should be paid even more than they are, which brings us to Foxworth’s final and most contentious suggestion:
Idea 3: Eliminate the Salary Cap
Simply put, while there is no limit to the danger the NFL players put themselves in to keep the multi-billion-dollar league in business, there is a strict limit on the amount they will be compensated in return. This has mainly been framed as a means of maintaining the league’s competitiveness, but let’s be honest about what the salary cap (and the five-year post-retirement health-coverage limit, and the vesting period) really accomplishes: keeping money in the owners’ pockets.
The average value of an NFL franchise is now $4.47 billion, according to Forbes. This figure was bolstered by the recent sale of the Denver Broncos for $4.65 billion, and the fact that the Dallas Cowboys ($8 billion), New England Patriots ($6.4 billion), Los Angeles Rams ($6.2 billion) and New York Giants ($6 billion) are also four of the five most valuable teams in all of professional sports.
To put a finer point on it, the “least rich” team in the NFL – the Cincinnati Bengals – is still appraised at $3 billion. Meanwhile, the NFL’s salary cap in 2022 was $208.2 million – roughly seven percent of the Bengals’ overall worth and 2.5 percent of the Cowboys’. If the owners really wanted to, they could spend a lot more money on player salaries and still remain super rich.
Over the years, the league and its media partners have cunningly portrayed pro athletes as greedy millionaires who should be happy that they get to play a game for a living. It’s a message a lot of people who don’t make nearly the sort of money that football players make are ready to hear, mostly because they’re jealous.
What’s lost in that smoke is that NFL players don’t make nearly the sort of money that NFL owners make, to say nothing of the disparity between fans and owners, and that’s why the players union has been able to successfully bargain for the benefits they enjoy. At the very least, the league could institute an NBA-style “soft cap,” where teams who want to spend beyond the limit have to also pay a luxury tax.
The point is that NFL teams are among the most monied in all of professional sports, and unlike the NBA and professional baseball (home to a lot of the other top-earning sports franchises), the risk of grievous injury is baked right into the game. While NFL players certainly make more money than I do, there is almost no workplace scenario that would place me at risk of hospitalization, so they deserve as much as they can get.
There’s also probably a half-point somewhere in here about how so many NFL owners are all for unfettered, laissez-faire capitalism except when it comes to competing with their fellow billionaires for the services of ultra-talented athletes and, wouldja look at that, then they suddenly favor a league-governed spending limit. But whatever.
Speaking of unfettered capitalism, here are my betting results for the 18th and final week of the NFL season.
BET #1 – Amon-Ra St. Brown UNDER 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – $5 bet pays out $9.34 – WIN
Why did I make this bet?
The Packers’ passing defense has really become a force to be reckoned with this season. Jaire Alexander continues his emergence as one of the NFL’s absolute best cornerbacks, and the rest of the guys back there all try their darnedest to match his All-Pro standard of play every game.
This unit performed especially well in Week 17 against the Minnesota Vikings, limiting their two most dangerous receivers (Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen) to just one catch apiece. Given the stakes of this final regular-season game, and given that Amon-Ra St. Brown is Detroit’s best pass-catcher, it stood to reason that the Packers would give St. Brown the same level of attention they did Jefferson, and stifle his production in kind.
What did I learn here?
While the plan against the Vikings was basically to let Alexander follow Jefferson to the left or right edge of the field and see which player had more success, the Packers rolled out more of a team effort against St. Brown (who frequently lines up in the slot). It was a success, as Green Bay once again held their opponent’s most potent offensive weapon to a relatively low yardage total.
BET #2 – Jared Goff OVER 1.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – $5 bet pays out $9.34 – WIN
Why did I make this bet?
When the Packers played the Lions in Week 9, one of the bets I placed was that Jared Goff would gain three or more total rushing yards. It didn’t happen, and I swore I’d never bet another Goff Over again.
But then I saw that this week, he’d only be required to gain two yards. Jared Goff is taller than two yards, so he’d literally just have to fall forward at some point during the game and not fumble and I’d emerge a winner.
What did I learn here?
If a team’s rushing defense is as bad as the Packers has been this season, anything under five yards is probably a guarantee. Jared Goff rushed for exactly five yards on two carries in his season finale, and re-established himself as the ultra-short-yardage betting threat that we all knew he could be.
BET #3 – Jared Goff OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-105) – $5 bet pays out $9.76 – LOSS
Why did I make this bet?
In that aforementioned Week 9 piece, I said the only safe Jared Goff Over was interceptions, and against a Packer defense who had amassed nine picks in the last four games, this one seemed like a lock.
What did I learn here?
Not only did I break my own rule, but it was that rogue rushing-yards Over that actually cashed. And while Green Bay’s defense did hold Amon-Ra St. Brown to fewer than 50 yards, they weren’t able to steal one of Goff’s 34 pass attempts.
BET #4 – Packers -7.5 (+134) – $5 bet pays out $11.70 – LOSS
Why did I make this bet?
The line on this game was Packers (-5) when I looked at my betting app a few days beforehand. Once again, because this was a win-and-in situation for the fellas in Green and Gold, and because it was night game at Lambeau Field in January, I had a lot of confidence the Packers would not only win, but win convincingly. For all of these reasons, I bumped the spread to Packers (-7.5) in order to get some plus odds.
What did I learn here?
Turns out it wouldn’t have mattered what the spread was as long as I bet on the Packers, who either blew a golden opportunity to make the playoffs, avoided a probable beatdown at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers the following week, or both, depending on how you wanna look at it. Green Bay managed just one touchdown against a team with literally nothing to play for besides spite, and frankly they didn’t deserve to win and advance.
It was a disappointing end to a 2022 campaign that would have seemed mostly kaput about halfway through if not for a string of late-season wins, and I think even the most diehard supporters had few illusions about a Super Bowl. I’ve said for years that Packer fans under 30 will soon experience a reckoning, when the team won’t have employed two of the greatest quarterbacks of all time in succession and free agents will be even harder to come by when the smallest market in major pro sports doesn’t have years of excellence in its recent history. I mean, it’s possible that Jordan Love will become the third legend in a row, but hopes don’t seem to be all that high.
Personally, this little project was a great way for me to more closely keep track of the Packers this season – something I hadn’t been doing for a few years – and I even walked away with a little money!
SUMMARY
WEEK 18
$20 bet
$18.68 paid out
$1.32 loss
2022 SEASON
$340 bet
$360.35 paid out
$20.35 profit
WRAP-UP
I took the $340 that I wagered this season, plus the $20 profit, plus $40 to make it an even number and I donated it all to Call to Safety.
If you’re reading this, thanks very much!
Eric Reinert 