If everything had gone as originally planned, I would have missed the Packers’ Christmas Day game against the Miami Dolphins as I drove from Green Bay to Homewood, Ill. See, back in late October my wife and I booked (extraordinarily overpriced) holiday travel tickets that would take us to and from Chicago on trusty, reliable Southwest Airlines. In the middle of our weeklong trip, we were going to drive three or so hours north to see my family in Northeast Wisconsin for a few days, and then return to the South Suburbs to spend Christmas Night and a couple more days with my in-laws.
To make a long story short, my dog developed a skin infection in early December that required a few trips to the vet, which combined with other end-of-the-year burnout factors suddenly made the idea of staying in Portland for the holidays considerably more appealing than what you’ve read in the previous paragraph. I talked it over with my wife and with my family back in Wisconsin, and thankfully everyone was very supportive of my thinking, which made the decision much easier, and boy am I lucky I stayed home.
As it turned out, frigid temperatures, icy roads and gusty winds would have made driving from Chicago to Green Bay very, very dangerous, so I probably wouldn’t have gotten to see my family anyway. And then I’m sure you probably heard about all of the problems Southwest Airlines got themselves into right as hundreds of thousands of people were trying to get home. My wife and her sister were two of those people, and ended up staying with their parents for a few days longer than expected after booking returning flights on a different carrier.
Oh yeah, my wife also got COVID while she was gone. (She’s all better now.)
So instead of dealing with <waves hand in a circle> all of that, I stayed at home, where my only real responsibility was to wash my dog’s face every night. I already had two weeks off from work, so I pretty much just turned my brain off and tried to chill. Lots of TV. Lots of sleeping. It was marvelous.
My family was still nice enough to mail a few gifts, which we opened together via FaceTime on Christmas Eve, and I already have (much more reasonably priced) tickets booked for a short Green Bay trip at the end of February. The Packers also gave themselves quite a gift when they went to Miami and kept their playoff hopes alive with a narrow-but-convincing win over the Dolphins, and as per usual I gave the online sportsbook I use a small gift of my own. Tis the season!
BET #1 – Tyreek Hill OVER 87.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – $5 bet pays out $9.34 – WIN
Why did I make this bet?
Dedicated readers of this silly project might notice that this week does not include any Over rushing-yard bets for the Packers’ opponents. Green Bay’s run defense has been among the league’s worst this season, and I’ve won far more wagers than I’ve lost when I’ve put my money on opposing players getting more than a certain number of yards on the ground.
Unfortunately, at the time I selected my bets for the week, there was not yet an option to continue this trend with Dolphins’ featured back Raheem Mostert, so instead I decided to throw some money down on the league’s most dangerous big-play receiver further burnishing his reputation with yet another explosive performance.
What did I learn here?
While Green Bay’s rush defense has been awful, they rank among the top of the NFL against the pass. Even still, the Dolphins were able to accumulate more than 300 yards through the air on Christmas Day, with nearly 250 coming from Hill and Jaylen Waddle (who actually led all receivers with 143 yards on his own).
If Miami can find some consistency on defense and balance its formidable aerial attack elsewhere on the field, they’ll be Super Bowl contenders once again. For now, though, I’m sure fans will settle for having Tyreek Hill on the roster, and with him the possibility of a game-changing play at just about any time.
BET #2 – Tua Tagovailoa OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-125) – $5 bet pays out $9 – WIN
Why did I make this bet?
Going into this game, everyone knew the Dolphins were going to throw the ball, and while Tua Tagovailoa isn’t the most careless quarterback in the league, he would be facing Jaire Alexander and the rest of the Packers’ talented pass defense. All it would take is one mistake by Tagovailoa or one of his receivers and this bet would cash.
What did I learn here?
Along with having a defense full of aggressive ball hawks, it’s usually easier to intercept passes when the opposing quarterback is concussed, which is apparently what happened to Tagovailoa in the second half of Sunday’s game before he threw three balls directly to the Packers. Despite everything we’ve been told about the NFL’s commitment to player safety, Tagovailoa wasn’t even evaluated for concussion symptoms until the following day, and it remains to be seen how involved he’ll be the rest of the season.
Winning this one doesn’t feel great in retrospect.
BET #3 – Aaron Rodgers OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+100) – $5 bet pays out $10 – LOSS
Why did I make this bet?
As mentioned throughout this week’s summary, the Miami Dolphins possess one of the NFL’s most potent passing attacks, and can get into the end zone with just one big play. In fact, they surpassed 30 points in more than half of their wins during the 2022 regular season. With such potential for Miami to develop a large lead quickly in the game, I thought the Packers would have to rely more heavily on Aaron Rodgers’s own arm to catch up.
What did I learn here?
All of the above is certainly true, as Rodgers ended up throwing the ball 38 times on Christmas. Unfortunately, he only connected with a teammate once in the end zone when he found fellow late-thirtysomething Marcedes Lewis on a one-yard play in the first quarter. There’s a reason that Rodgers’s passing-prop numbers have been lower this season, and I need to accept that the days of regular three- and four-touchdown games are probably behind him.
BET #4 – Miami Dolphins Win AND Total Score UNDER 49.5 Points (+200) – $5 bet pays out $15 – LOSS
Why did I make this bet?
Of the Packers’ three remaining games before this week, the prospect of winning this one seemed the most daunting, so when it came to selecting a parlay I felt more confident with one containing a Dolphins win. And, you know, 50 points is a lot, even in today’s NFL.
What did I learn here?
Once every few weeks, I’ll select a bet that I don’t totally believe in because I need round out the week’s $20. This was one of those bets, and I lost.
SUMMARY
WEEK 16
$20 bet
$18.34 paid out
$1.66 loss
2022 SEASON
$300 bet
$322.37 paid out
$22.37 profit
NEXT WEEK
The Packers continue their march toward the playoffs with their first of two games back on the Frozen Tundra. On New Year’s Day, they’ll face the reviled Minnesota Vikings in order to keep hope alive. Go Pack!
