For the first time since the very early part of the season, the Packers seem to have a little positive momentum. Monday night’s convincing win over the Los Angeles Rams was Green Bay’s second in a row, and it increased the Packers’ playoff chances to 9 percent, according to the New York Times simulation tool I’ve been using the last few weeks.
No matter the odds, though, Green Bay must not lose any of their final three regular season games, and the teams they’re facing will be a lot tougher than the four-win Rams (and than the three-win Chicago Bears, whom the Packers beat in early December before their bye week). On the plus side, the last two games will be at home, but if the Packers lose this Sunday, it won’t really matter.
To their credit, the team hasn’t given up, narrow though their window of postseason opportunity might be, and I’ll stick with this betting project as long as they’re still playing.
BET #1 – Cam Akers OVER 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – $5 bet pays out $9.34 – WIN
Why did I make this bet?
Here’s how little attention I pay to teams that aren’t the Packers: If you would have asked me what team Cam Akers plays for, I couldn’t have told you. If you would have asked me what position Cam Akers plays, I would have guessed placekicker, because I’d have gotten him confused with David Akers, who hasn’t played in the NFL since 2013.
With that having been said, I still threw down an Over bet on the Rams’ running back’s yardage total, because the Packers haven’t been able to stop anyone.
What did I learn here?
There’s a bit of dialogue in Jackie Brown where Samuel L. Jackson’s gun-dealer character is talking to Robert De Niro’s bank-robber character about how he doesn’t have to trust his scheming girlfriend, Melanie, because he knows her.
“You can’t trust Melanie,” Jackson’s character explains, “but you can always trust Melanie to be Melanie.”
This perfectly sums up how I feel about the Packers’ run defense. Even when the opposing team’s featured running back is someone I literally couldn’t name before looking at the betting options, I made the Over wager without hesitation. I can’t trust the Packers’ run defense, but from a betting standpoint, I can always trust them to suck.
BET #2 – Baker Mayfield OVER 10.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – $5 bet pays out $9.34 – LOSS
Why did I make this bet?
I’ve always been a bit of a mark for Baker Mayfield. Something about an undersized quarterback with oversized swagger just does it for me, and I hoped that he’d be one of a small group of elite players to help bring the Cleveland Browns back to prominence at long last.
Instead, Mayfield finds himself on his third team (and his second this season), ushered into a starting role with the Rams just a few days after he was granted his release from the Carolina Panthers, and the Browns have the same record as the Packers as they grapple with their decision to leverage their near future on an underperforming quarterback who was suspended for more than half of the season for being a fuckin’ scumbag predator. ALLEGEDLY.
Anyway, given the horrendous state of the Packers’ run defense, and the fact that earlier in his career Mayfield was a capable scrambler, 11 yards didn’t seem like a stretch.
What did I learn here?
Baker Mayfield will make for a serviceable second-stringer during the next five to eight seasons before transitioning successfully into broadcasting/hosting/acting.
BET #3 – Total Score UNDER 39.5 Points (-110) – $5 bet pays out $9.54 – WIN
BET #4 – Total Score UNDER 39.5 Points AND 1st Quarter UNDER 8.5 Points AND Packers Win First Half (+320) – $5 bet pays out $21 – WIN
Why did I make these bets?
On Monday night, a couple of teams with low-powered offenses played a game where the temperature at kickoff was something like 15 degrees. While it’s always risky in today’s version of the NFL to bet a point-total under 40, this seemed like the situation to do it.
I then decided to enhance the potential winnings by selecting a same-game parlay that also included that 39.5-point Under. In a frigid night-game, I thought the first and fourth quarters might be the least productive, when players were still acclimating to the conditions and later when they were exhausted from playing professional football in short-sleeves when most sane people would either be inside with a beer somewhere or at least wearing several layers of what is essentially winterized body armor if they had to be outdoors.
I also thought the Packers were going to win every phase of Monday’s game, not only because they’re operating with more weapons on offense (which is saying something considering the evolving state of Green Bay’s receiving corps) but also because Rams’ All-World defensive tackle Aaron Donald would not be playing. Why not try to more than quadruple my bet?
What did I learn here?
I wish you could have seen me nervously pacing as the Packers marched down the field late in the fourth quarter.
With less than two minutes to play, Green Bay led the Rams 24-12. The home team had already scored the only points of the first quarter with a field goal en route to winning the first half, so two of the parlay’s three required parts had been accomplished. All I needed was for the Packers to not score a touchdown from the Rams’ 4-yard line, and I’d nearly double by money for the week. If, on the other hand, Green Bay scored more than a field goal on their final possession, that nearly $20 profit would turn into a nearly $11 loss.
As Aaron Rodgers handed the ball off to Aaron Jones, I felt like Jackie Moon on Corn Dog Night, and I cheered lustily when Jones was tackled just a yard short of the goal line. Hate all you want, but the Packers had already wrapped up the game and their next move would determine a $30 swing for me.
Never in my life have I been so excited to see three consecutive kneel-downs. I’m sure there were plenty of other people who were screaming “BUT YOU’RE SO CLOSE TO THE END ZONE” at their televisions, but I was dancing when the clock hit zero and the total score was still 36 points.
SUMMARY
WEEK 15
$20 bet
$39.88 paid out
$19.88 profit
2022 SEASON
$280 bet
$304.03 paid out
$24.03 profit
NEXT WEEK
While the fair citizens of Green Bay will spend Christmas Day in temperatures that, including wind chill, will not feel warmer than negative 3, the Packers will be in Miami trying to bring some holiday cheer to Wisconsin. At the last minute, and with the support of my family, I made a decision to stay in Portland for Christmas, so I’ll be watching the game as the city continues to thaw out from the weekend’s forecast ice storm.
Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays/Joyous Whatever to all of you!
