As the astute old saying goes, it’s generally better to win than to lose, so while the Packers find themselves tied for tenth in the NFC at the beginning of December, they are technically not yet disqualified from the playoffs.
According to this handy program from the New York Times, Green Bay’s victory on Sunday over the Chicago Bears not only makes them the winningest franchise in NFL history, but also preserves their chance to make the postseason at a minuscule but still-nonzero four percent. Messing around with the potential outcomes of the Packers’ final four games yields one conclusive result: they must win all of them to even have a slim opportunity to play beyond Week 18, and even then it’s only about a 35 percent chance.
It’s a good thing, then, that Aaron Rodgers and Co. went into Soldier Field and took care of business on Sunday. It would appear that, for the moment anyway, the Packers are angling for a playoff berth rather than for a higher draft pick. Let’s see how it pans out!
BET #1 – Justin Fields OVER 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – $5 bet pays out $9.34 – WIN
Why did I make this bet?
I’ve just about run out of new ways to write “I bet against the Packers rush defense because it’s not very good,” so we’ll just keep it as simple as that.
What did I learn here?
While Justin Fields is going to be the last true dual-threat quarterback the Packers face this season, I’m going to keep betting these rushing Overs for the team’s future opponents. Green Bay currently ranks 31st in rushing yards allowed, and these bets have been as close as I’ve seen to guaranteed wins in 2022.
BET #2 – Christian Watson OVER 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – $5 bet pays out $9.34 – WIN
Why did I make this bet?
I remember in 2015 when Davante Adams led the NFL in dropped passes. It was just his second year in the league and I joined the chorus of other Packer fans who wanted him gone. Fortunately, Adams would go on to prove us silly doubters wrong and become one of the best wide receivers of his generation.
It seems that Christian Watson might be on track to experience an abbreviated version of Adams’s path to greatness, as the rookie has overcome all of the early-season skepticism and become a touchdown machine in the Packers’ last few games. As one of the only reliable options in the passing game, then, it stood to reason that no matter who Green Bay’s quarterback was on Sunday, Watson would see his share of action.
What did I learn here?
While Watson certainly contributed his share of offense, it was actually Allen Lazard – mostly relegated to a secondary option after Watson’s recent ascent – who led the team in both receptions and yards. Still, Watson had himself one receiving touchdown to go along with … drumroll please … 48 yards!
Watson might not yet be where Adams was in his prime, but he’ll remain an attractive betting option for the rest of the year.
BET #3 – Chicago Bears Moneyline (+155) – $5 bet pays out $12.75 – LOSS
Why did I make this bet?
Call me a “bad Packer fan” all you want, I just didn’t think Green Bay was going to be able to out-produce the Bears’ formidable rushing attack. Sure, Aaron Rodgers said he was going to play, but with his broken thumb and messed-up ribs, who really knew for certain?
Do you have confidence that Jordan Love can go to Chicago and play better than Justin Fields? I don’t.
What did I learn here?
I was honestly quite surprised to see the Bears as home underdogs against Green Bay. The Packers might have recorded one more win than their rivals to the south heading into Sunday’s game, but Justin Fields looks like a future superstar, so the motivation for him to show out would naturally be very high.
This bet was looking good until the fourth quarter, when the Packers scored 18 unanswered points to notch their 17th win over the Bears this decade. I should have known better.
BET #4 – Chicago Bears Moneyline AND Green Bay Packers Win the 1st Quarter AND Total Points UNDER 44.5 (+900) – $5 bet pays out $50 – LOSS
Why did I make this bet?
I’m probably going to start throwing at least one parlay into each week of the rest of the season, barring a scenario where there are four other especially attractive wagers. I was already betting the Bears Moneyline separately, and it wasn’t unrealistic to expect that the Packers might score a touchdown and only allow a field goal in the first quarter en route to a lowish-scoring, run-heavy contest.
What did I learn here?
There’s a reason this was +900, and I ended up hitting exactly zero of the three requirements here. Still, I cashed my parlay from last week, which combined with the parlay in Week 9 against the Lions is the only reason I’m even a tiny bit ahead on the year. It only takes a few…
SUMMARY
WEEK 13
$20 bet
$18.68 paid out
$1.32 loss
2022 SEASON
$260 bet
$264.15 paid out
$4.15 profit
NEXT WEEK
The Packers and my wallet get a much-needed week off. On Dec. 19th, the Packers host the Los Angeles Rams in their only Monday Night Football appearance this season. Sounds like the perfect accompaniment to holiday travel preparation!
