I’m very thankful for the Green Bay Packers. When you think about it, it’s pretty nuts that a city with a population just over 100,000 people not only has any professional sports organization, but is home to one of the NFL’s most iconic franchises. I definitely took that fact for granted when I was a kid, riding past Lambeau Field on the bus twice a day on the way to and from school, and I even tried to pretend for a few years as a teenager that I didn’t actually care about the Packers at all. Eventually, though, my attention was pulled back to the television on Sunday afternoons, because that’s what happens when you’re from Green Bay.
Of course, it certainly helps that the team has made the playoffs 22 of the last 30 years, during which time they’ve employed two of the game’s all-time great quarterbacks in succession, so my life as a Packer fan has been one of high expectations. We’ve reached a point where an entire generation of Green Bay residents can only listen to their parents and grandparents talk about the “bad old days” of the ’70s and ’80s, during which time the Packers made the playoffs precisely twice. I’m just old enough to remember the few years before Brett Favre, Mike Holmgren, Ron Wolf and Reggie White helped turn things around, when the team had a quarterback with a name I can’t even spell without looking it up, and when the rivalry with the Chicago Bears was as one-sided as it it today, but in the opposite direction.
I wonder, then, what the future looks like for the team in the league’s smallest city after Aaron Rodgers decides to depart. Without another generational quarterback falling in their lap, its hard to imagine that things won’t just go back to how they were when Tony Mandarich was considered to be the Next Big Thing and Sterling Sharpe had plenty of talent but no one to throw him the ball. If the 2022 season continues as it has, I imagine Packer fans will get a preview of one potential path when Jordan Love ultimately starts playing significant minutes.
Who knows – we all thought Rodgers sucked when he first came to town, and now he’s one of Wisconsin’s most legendary athletes. For now, I’ll choose to stay optimistic. Perhaps that’s naive, but it’s that same naivety that has kept me going with this questionable project.
BET #1 – Derrick Henry OVER 99.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – $5 bet pays out $9.34 – LOSS
Why did I make this bet?
Packers run defense bad. Derrick Henry good.
What did I learn here?
If the Packers really, really buckle down, and focus absolutely all of their defensive efforts on stopping one of the league’s most dangerous and productive running backs, they can hold that running back to just under 90 yards.
Of course, this also means that the opposing team’s supremely Mid quarterback will look like a Pro Bowler, completing 22 of his 27 passing attempts for more than 300 yards and a couple touchdowns, which is why the Packers ultimately came up short last Thursday. I guess we can’t have it all.
BET #2 – Derrick Henry Out-Runs Aaron Jones by Fewer Than 50.5 Yards (-115) – $5 bet pays out $9.34 – WIN
Why did I make this bet?
I thought there was a good chance that Derrick Henry would run for a lot of yards, but I didn’t think he’d be able to out-gain the Packers’ own featured back by half the length of the field. In the absence of nearly any other reliable options on offense, Aaron Jones has been Green Bay’s best player on that side of the ball, and probably deserves a close look at a second Pro Bowl bid himself, so I had enough confidence that he’d have a decent game on the ground last week.
What did I learn here?
Ironically, I think I have the Packers’ run defense to thank for this win. Since they were able to keep Henry to 87 yards on the ground, Jones’s paltry 40 yards was just enough for me (while maybe about 20 yards less than the team might have preferred on 12 carries). Put this one in the Better Lucky Than Good category.
BET #3 – Aaron Rodgers OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-105) – $5 bet pays out $9.76 – WIN
Why did I make this bet?
The Titans have the same fundamental problem on defense as the Packers, only inverse. That is, while the Titans’ run defense is formidable indeed, their passing defense ranks near the bottom of the league. That questionable staff would be facing an injured-but-still-dangerous Aaron Rodgers and suddenly exciting rookie wideout Christian Watson. If the Packers had any chance to score, then, it was probably going to be through the air.
What did I learn here?
Aaron Rodgers with a broken thumb on his throwing hand is still better than most quarterbacks in the NFL, and he’s definitely still better than Jordan Love. Heading into Week 12, he ranks sixth in total passing yards and fourth in passing touchdowns, and this is at 38 years old with a group of new wide receivers and A DAMN BROKEN THUMB ON HIS THROWING HAND.
Despite all of this, if a defense gives Rodgers the chance to throw the ball in the end zone (and if Watson can maintain his recent performance), he’s gonna make it happen.
BET #4 – Final Score is an EVEN Number (-105) – $5 bet pays out $9.76 – WIN
Why did I make this bet?
STICK WITH WHAT WORKS, PEOPLE.
What did I learn here?
This is the third time in four weeks that this bet has hit for me, and as long as one of the Odd/Even totals has better odds than the other, I’ll keep making this bet until I start losing consistently.
SUMMARY
WEEK 11
$20 bet
$28.86 paid out
$8.86 profit
2022 SEASON
$220 bet
$196.39 paid out
$23.61 loss
NEXT WEEK
The Packers face their most challenging challenge yet when they head into the profoundly unfriendly confines of Lincoln Financial Field to face the Philadelphia Eagles, a team many consider to be the league’s very best. Will they try to keep their dim playoff hopes alive since its still November, or is there a chance we begin to see a … change in strategy … moving forward?
I’m very thankful for you. Thanks for reading!
