THE PACK IS BACK BAYBAY!!
OK maybe not, but Sunday’s win over the Packers’ third-fiercest historical rival (sorry, Lions fans) sure felt like a significant change for the better. Not only was Green Bay able to survive a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit, but they engineered the sort of late-game, Aaron Rodgers-led comeback that made even the most disheartened, pessimistic Packer fans find a small glimmer of hope. There are, after all, still seven more games to play before the season ends, and the Packers are not technically out of the playoff race just yet.
By contrast, I’ve returned to my losing ways in the betting department, once again dropping all $20 this week. I’ve also more or less sapped all of my creativity after last week’s Extra Personal Edition of this column, so let’s just get to the numbers.
BET #1 – Dak Prescott OVER 12.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – $10 bet pays out $19.09 – LOSS
Why did I make this bet?
This was the only Cowboys rushing prop on the board when I made my picks last week, and betting on the Packers’ opponents to hit the Overs on these sorts of wagers has been pretty reliable for me this season. Plus, 12.5 yards didn’t seem like much. If Prescott rushed the ball just four times, he’d only need to average three or four yards on each one. Seemed like a sure thing.
What did I learn here?
WELP. Prescott did carry the ball four times, but only managed six total yards. At 29 and in his seventh year in the league, he’s certainly not as spry as the dual-threat quarterback who rushed for around 300 yards in each of his first four seasons, but because I don’t closely follow any teams other than the Packers, I forgot that he suffered a season-ending ankle injury in 2020 and has been more of a pocket-passer ever since.
Still, 12.5 yards isn’t that much, and I’d probably do this bet again.
BET #2 – Dallas Cowboys -4 (-110) – $5 bet pays out $9.55 – LOSS
Why did I make this bet?
Going into this week, the Packers seemed like they were at their lowest point since hiring Matt LaFleur as head coach in 2019. Against the bottom-feeding Detroit Lions (again, sorry to Lions fans), they managed just nine total points en route to a demoralizing fifth consecutive loss. The team’s two featured running backs averaged around three yards per carry, and were out-gained on the ground by 38-year-old Aaron Rodgers.
On the other hand, the Cowboys were 6-2 (including 5-1 since Week 2) and coming off a bye week. They possess one of the NFL’s best passing defenses and generally appear like a team we’ll see playing in mid-January. While the Lambeau Mystique (which is a real thing) would usually make me hesitant to bet on any of the Packers’ opponents beyond maybe -3, this seemed like a mismatch on paper.
What did I learn here?
Aaron Rodgers says “EFF YOUR PAPER.”
The Cowboys should have won this game. They absolutely should have. There’s no excuse for blowing a two-score lead so late, especially when they’re in a heated battle with Philadelphia and the New York Giants for the lead in the NFC East. I know it was probably more complicated than this, but it sure seemed like Mike McCarthy deciding to go for it on 4th-and-4 was the pivotal bad-decision of the afternoon, and this time the Packers actually got to benefit.
BET #3 – Aaron Rodgers OVER 0.5 Interceptions (+135) – $5 bet pays out $11.75 – LOSS
Why did I make this bet?
Aaron Rodgers had thrown four interceptions over the previous two games. If the Packers were going to find themselves trailing by multiple touchdowns, they’d certainly have to rely on Rodgers’s arm to make their way back to even, and that meant he’d have to directly contend with Dallas’s aforementioned passing defense. Given the totality of the circumstances, therefore, betting that Rodgers might throw a single interception sometime on Sunday didn’t seem like a stretch, especially at plus odds.
What did I learn here?
The Cowboys not only could have helped me win this one, but also could have stopped the Packers’ eventual comeback by just stepping in front of one errant Rodgers pass late in the game. Really what I learned, though, is that rumors of Rodgers’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.
Yes, running back Aaron Jones contributed significantly with 138 rushing yards, but it was because of Rodgers (and, shockingly, maligned rookie wide receiver Christian Watson) that the Packers ultimately prevailed. The Packers legendary quarterback might not be everything he once was, but he’s still damn good.
SUMMARY
WEEK 8
$20 bet
$0 paid out
$20 loss
2022 SEASON
$200 bet
$167.53 paid out
$32.47 loss
NEXT WEEK
The Packers only get a short break this week, coming back on Thursday night to welcome the Tennessee Titans to the increasingly freezing tundra. Tennessee is 6-1 in their last seven games, and running back Derrick Henry currently has the second-most rushing yards in the NFL. If there was ever a week to hammer a rushing Over, it’s this one.
Eric Reinert 