If you know me well enough to have seen a social media link to this piece and then you clicked on it to read more of My Dumb Stuff, you’re probably aware that I enjoy a bit of gambling. I don’t like to get too crazy, but I’ll occasionally throw $100 in a slot machine at the Ship Ahoy Tavern with my wife or spend a little time at a craps table.
And then, of course, there’s sports betting. Thanks to recent sweeping changes in the methods and locations where gambling on sports can occur, placing a wager in many U.S. states is now as easy as opening an iPhone app and tapping a few icons. Such is the case in Oregon, where online sports betting has been legal since late 2019, and I’ve placed the occasional small wager in the time since.
Anyway, it’s football season, and the NFL is by far my favorite league to bet. (I actually enjoy watching the NBA more, but I learned very quickly that gambling on pro basketball is a great way to familiarize yourself with losing your money.) In that spirit, I’ve decided to try something new in 2022:
This season, I’m going to bet $20 on every Green Bay Packers game, and keep a cumulative total of my performance. Perhaps you have questions.
Why am I doing this?
A few reasons, really. Other than my aforementioned affection for low-stakes gambling, having a little money on the line each week will motivate me to pay better attention to the Packers as the season progresses.
To be truthful, my focus on the Packers and on the NFL more generally has really shifted over the last decade or so. The concussion stuff definitely had something to do with that, as did the league’s long-established habit of bungling its many off-the-field issues. The most significant factor, though, has to be my physical distance from Wisconsin.
Sure, there are Packer bars in Portland, and a handful of my buddies out here are fellow Dairyland expats, but there’s something about how ubiquitous the team was in the conversations I’d have at work or at the bar back in Wisconsin that just sort of kept them top-of-mind. After moving to Portland, I also realized how much I took for granted that people in Green Bay or Madison – where I spent the first 30 years of my life – can watch every Packer game on their televisions at home. Out here, we’re lucky to get about half of the games, but for the other half I usually have to leave the house to see more than the Red Zone coverage, placing another minor disincentive toward the practice of watching each and every contest.
That said, however, I’ve heard the disappointment in my dad’s voice during recent seasons when he’d ask if I saw such-and-such a play and I’d have to meekly admit that I hadn’t seen a Packer game in several weeks, so this season I’m forcing myself to pay closer attention in the most effective way I know how: risking some of my money.
Secondarily, I’ve found myself in a real creative rut in the last few years, and I thought something easy like this would give me a reason to write for several weeks in a row and shake off the ol’ mental cobwebs. I haven’t done anything with music in forever, and I stopped making my YouTube car-food videos earlier in 2022 because I was getting bored (and I made all the old videos private after some rando said I should “consider reviewing a salad bar” and made some other reference to intermittent fasting). The last thing I wrote was a television wrap-up for the first year of COVID, and while I still love watching TV, it’s long past the point where I began incorporating other things into my free time once again.
For real though: Keep an eye out for a 2022 TV wrap-up in December or January. Gosh, what a year. I already have like 20 shows that I want to write about and it’s only September. Have you seen “The Bear?” What about “Chad and JT Go Deep” or “Somebody Somewhere” or “Under the Banner of Heaven?”
Sorry – I’m getting distracted.
How will all of this work?
Each week, I’ll wager $20 on various bets related to the Packer games, with a minimum of two bets per game and a maximum of four. After the games, I’ll explain why I chose each bet and what I learned from each win or loss. I’ll keep a running total of my financial performance so we can learn how lucrative (or dangerous) sports betting can be for someone who knows just enough to maybe make a little extra beer money (or lose a few hundred dollars) over the course of a 17-week season.
Isn’t it “Packers game” and “Packers fans?” With the S?
OK that’s technically true, geek, but for my gambling writing I’m going to employ the colloquial usage that I grew up with. I’m from Green Bay. My entire immediate family still lives there. I went to damn Vince Lombardi Middle School. All of this to say I feel the freedom to have fun with grammar on this one.
Did you expect there would be more questions when you started writing this?
Yes, but I realize that this is all pretty straightforward, so let’s just get it going, hey?
WEEK 1 (SEPT. 11, 2022) – PACKERS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS
BET #1 – Packers Moneyline (+110) – $5 bet pays out $10.50 – LOSS
Why did I make this bet?
This one was pure heart, I’ll admit. As much as the Packers/Bears rivalry gets the well deserved history-based press, the Vikings were the organization that gave Green Bay fits during Brett Favre’s heyday, and they remain my Most Despised NFL Team. In short, there was no way I was going to bet against the Packers in Week 1, especially after I heard so much about their vaunted defense. Maybe not the smartest pick, and I certainly won’t always bet on the Packers to win, but this was one I had to do this time around.
What did I learn here?
Perhaps I should have looked to last year’s lopsided Week 1 loss to New Orleans to better inform my choices. While the Packers’ defense only allowed six points (and no touchdowns) during the game’s second half, it only took a few missed assignments among their cornerbacks and safeties to give the Vikings a wide enough lead early on where it didn’t make a difference.
What really hurt the team, though, was their lack of offensive output, which I thought might be the case before the game. In fact, it’s precisely why I decided to place…
BET #2 – Packers UNDER 22.5 points (+105) – $5 bet pays out $9.76 – WIN
Why did I make this bet?
While I held out (perhaps misguided) hope that the Packers might win, I definitely thought it would primarily be a defensive effort. However much has been made of the team’s supposed excellence on that side of the ball, even more headlines have concerned the Packers’ retooled receiving corps, comprised of the still-not-fully-proven (and currently injured) Allen Lazard, veteran supporting acts Sammy Watkins and Randall Cobb and then a handful of rookies whose names I have not yet bothered to memorize.
If the Packers were going to win this game, I therefore reasoned, it would be on the strength of their two-fisted rushing attack and on their defense keeping the score low.
What did I learn here?
Well I was certainly right about the Packers keeping their score low.
As Aaron Rodgers lofted a gorgeous deep pass down the field during the Packers’ opening drive, my hopes for a quick, crowd-silencing touchdown to open the 2022 NFL season grew with each yard the ball sailed. I watched as the perfect spiral descended toward the outstretched hands of rookie wide receiver Christian Watson (had to look that name up), timed so perfectly that he didn’t even have to alter his route. I raised my arms like I had so many times before, expecting the Packers to earn both six points and significant momentum.
And then the ball slipped through Watson’s grasp, falling impotently to the turf for an incomplete pass.
As with last year, I expect that the Packers’ offense will eventually hit its stride (and hopefully catch passes in that stride) and begin to resemble the high-powered group we’ve seen in so many previous Aaron Rodgers-led seasons, but I also figured they’d have their struggles in early September. I’ll definitely consider this bet next week as well, at least until the team proves they can actually string together some productive possessions.
BET #3 – AJ Dillon Scores a TD (+170) – $5 bet pays out $13.50 – WIN
Why did I make this bet?
I think this was my favorite bet of the bunch, and not just because it netted me the highest profit.
Packers fans have been waiting two long years to see the man they call “Quadzilla” become a serious backfield threat, and I figured it wouldn’t be long before the 250 lb. running back found the end zone, particularly in the extremely likely chance the team found itself in goal-to-go scenario. I saw those odds approach 2:1 and I had to pounce.
What did I learn here?
I would never have made such a bold bet on another team’s secondary running back, but I suppose that’s the small edge that one gains paying extra attention to the Packers. I expect that this same bet will be on the board for much lower odds in Week 2, so I’m glad I decided to take advantage while it was at +170.
Dillon proved to be an absolute weapon in the red zone this week. He was inches from the goal line early in the game, only to be denied by the Vikings’ impressive defense, but he bowled his way through so many purple pins in the third quarter to score the Packers’ only touchdown of the day. In addition, he wound up leading the Packers in rushing attempts, receptions and receiving yards, proving that the fans’ high hopes were not misplaced.
BET #4 – Aaron Jones OVER 48.5 Rushing Yards (-120) – $5 bet pays out $9.16 – WIN
Why did I make this bet?
As mentioned earlier, I expected the Packers’ offseason turnover at wide receiver would limit their ability to move the ball through the air, but as a result I also figured the inexperience at that position would yield ample production opportunities for their running backs to begin the season. Aaron Jones is the team’s featured player in that role, and I thought even if he had a meager 10 carries he’d get close to 50 yards.
What did I learn here?
Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good, as the saying goes.
While the Packers’ receivers definitely need some work, Aaron Rodgers is sure giving them the chance to learn on the job. On Sunday, Rodgers threw the ball 34 times, completing 22 passes to ten different receivers. None of these completions resulted in a touchdown, and Rodgers didn’t even reach 200 total passing yards, but the team did seem determined to spread the ball around to see who showed up to play on Sunday.
Of course, this offensive strategy came at the specific expense of Jones, who was handed the ball just five times the entire game. Fortunately for me, one of those carries resulted in a 29-yard pickup, and by the end of the game, Jones had surpassed the wager’s required total by just half-a-yard. This bet will be a big-time stay-away for me in Week 2, but good fortune happened to be on my side here.
Speaking of good fortune:
WEEK 1 SUMMARY
$20 bet
$32.42 paid out
$12.42 profit
Other Fun Bets from the Weekend
UFC 279 – Nate Diaz to Win by Submission (+650) – $5 pays out $37.50 – WIN
UFC 279 – Tony Ferguson to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (+250) – $5 pays out $17.50 – LOSS
In my 20s, I was a wildman about the UFC. I’d order every pay-per-view, watch the ever-expanding offerings on basic cable and would regale anyone who spent any significant amount of time with me about the virtues of mixed martial arts. In fact, there was a brief period of time when I tried to break into MMA journalism by writing (for free, of course) for a couple independent websites that cover the sport, before deciding that trying to make a hobby into a job was just going to make me hate the hobby.
As I got into my 30s, though, the fire that once burned for caged combat began to die. I quickly grew tired both of the UFC’s myriad unappealing elements (disgracefully low fighter pay, unlikeable stars, a tendency to pander to a certain political segment of the American populace, to name a few) and of UFC President Dana White’s ceaseless histrionics when he’s been forced to talk about any of them. At this point, the only reason I even know what’s going on in the sport is because I still listen to a tremendous podcast that also inspired me to start this betting/writing project, so shout-out to Chad and Ben.
I still love the Diaz Brothers, though. Nick Diaz is my favorite professional fighter of all time, and his younger brother Nate is always good for an entertaining fight, which brings us to last Saturday.
Before UFC 279 this past weekend, Nate Diaz had been in the Octagon just once since 2019, and was riding a 14-month layoff as he attempted to negotiate with the UFC to determine when and against whom the final fight on his current contract would take place. After it seemed like the two sides reached a very public impasse, it was suddenly announced that Diaz would close this portion of his UFC career against up-and-coming welterweight berserker Khamzat Chimaev.
Long story short: Chimaev missed weight by several pounds, which led to the UFC completely reshuffling its main card. When the smoke cleared, Diaz was ultimately slated to face Tony Ferguson, a fellow longtime UFC veteran and fan favorite who had lost his previous four fights in a row. This was certainly a more favorable matchup for Diaz, who was previously a +750 underdog against Chimaev, and it was the first UFC pay-per-view that I’d purchased in forever, so I figured why not throw a few dollars down on a Method of Victory bet.
Eleven of Diaz’s 20 professional victories had come by submission before Saturday, so I guessed that if this one went to the ground, he might have a decent shot at getting Ferguson to tap. That’s just what happened midway through the fourth round, only it was Ferguson who initiated the takedown that would soon lead to his fifth straight defeat. Diaz quickly cinched in a tight one-arm guillotine and waited for Ferguson to decide whether to submit or pass out, flexing to the partisan Las Vegas crowd just for fun. The referee stepped in shortly thereafter and that was that. It’s the winnings from this bet that actually gave me the confidence to start this little project, so thanks to Nate Diaz.
(I also hedged this by betting that other $5 for Ferguson to win by KO/TKO/DQ. I correctly predicted that there was almost no way Nate Diaz and Tony Ferguson were going all five rounds on Saturday night, and the winnings from either one would have covered the bet for the other. I just happened to cash the one with better odds.)
U.S. Open Men’s Final – Carlos Alcaraz to Win 3:1 (+330) – $5 pays out $21.50 – WIN
If you’ve reached the professional tennis portion of this piece, I thank you for your attention to my silly gambling rambling.
I spent most of last week in Green Bay after my dad had a “moderate-to-severe” bout with diverticulitis that landed him in the hospital for several days. He was discharged the night I got to town, so my main goal during my stay was to hang out and keep him company while also trying to wrest some of the caretaking burden from my mom and my sister.
One of the main ways my dad and I like to hang out is by watching movies and sports. I can trace just about everything I like about film, music and television as an adult to stuff my dad shared with me when I was a kid, and we spent many a Sunday afternoon in the mid-1990s at different sports bars around Green Bay watching an NFL doubleheader while eating an onion loaf and playing QB1.
Movies and television require a certain synergy of taste, so to keep things easy while my dad was trying to put as little effort into anything as possible, we defaulted to sports. Unfortunately, my dad’s timing when it came to his illness was really terrible as it pertained to having a lot of sports to watch during his recovery period, so we were stuck with college football and a major tennis event (because, let’s be honest, non-playoff baseball is kind of boring). Fortunately, however, my dad and I can pretty much get into watching any sport and within about ten minutes can establish strong opinions that we then use to needle each other.
After watching a lopsided Clemson win over Georgia Tech on Labor Day, we were left on the following Tuesday night with one option: the U.S. Open men’s quarterfinals. That night, we witnessed someone named Karen act like a total professional while his opponent whined to his coaches throughout the match and then smashed a bunch of his rackets after he lost. I quietly got a nice buzz from about a half-dozen New Glarus beers while I ate most of a Cranky Pat’s frozen pizza, and my dad any I had a great time watching some elite-level tennis.
The next night, we basically did the same thing for the last men’s quarterfinal match between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, only my dad had to bow out around 11:30 p.m. Central during the third set. I, on the other hand, stayed up until about 1:45 a.m. for the match’s entire 5 hours and 15 minutes to watch Alcaraz grind his way to an incredible victory. It was a fun way to spend the last night visiting my hometown, and definitely helped keep my body-clock tuned to Pacific time.
While I didn’t watch any of the U.S. Open semifinal matches, I was pretty stoked to include the two championship contests in a terrific sports weekend, so when I saw that Alcaraz would be competing for his first major title (and for the game’s number-one ranking), I had to do a small bet on him. As a favorite, though, a straight bet on Alcaraz wouldn’t have netted much of a profit, so I needed to be more specific.
Alcaraz’s opponent on Sunday, Casper Ruud, is no slouch himself, and would have also captured the world’s top ranking with a win, so I didn’t think he was going to make it easy for his 19-year-old challenger. I still thought Alcaraz would emerge victorious in New York, though, so I put $5 on the Spanish phenom to win three sets to one.
I fast-forwarded through most of the match, and it looked for a minute like Ruud was going to ruuin my bet by winning sets two and three, but Alcaraz somehow eeked out the tiebreaker in the third en route to a 6-3 championship-winning fourth set. More than anything, this one felt like a reward for staying up so late to watch Alcaraz win his earlier match, and maybe more broadly it was a dose of good karma for jumping on a plane one day after I booked the tickets in order to ease the emotional burden being carried by the rest of my immediate family, but it sure would be shitty to connect a gambling win to what was supposed to be a selfless act, wouldn’t it?
NEXT WEEK
The Packers play their first regular season game in the legendary confines of Lambeau Field, where they’ll host the still-reviled Chicago Bears. The Packers are laying 9.5 points to Chicago as of this writing, which honestly makes it tempting to pick the Bears to beat the spread, as much as it makes me vomit in my own mouth to bet on them in any capacity.
We’ll see how the week shakes out. Have a good one!
